Time not Timing 

Many investors try to time the market but for the average investor, time in the market matters more. Recent market dynamics reinforce this. Bitcoin recently topped a new all‑time high near $124 000, thanks in part to massive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, exceeding $50 billion so far in 2025, yet it remains prone to short-term corrections and volatility. This report examines how dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into bitcoin builds exposure and compounds returns — even through severe drawdowns. We contrast DCA with lump-sum market timing and show that across cycles, staying invested has mattered more than trying to identify the bottom. We then show how GalaxyOne, the new multi-asset investing platform from Galaxy, enables individual investors to automate DCA and direct multiple yield sources into bitcoin all in one place. 

DCA as a Long-Term Bitcoin Accumulation Strategy

DCA is a simple investment strategy. Invest a fixed amount on a regular schedule over a defined period, with the goal of steadily accumulating the asset and smoothing your entry price. Instead of trying to pick the perfect moment, you let time in the market do the work. Although a single lump sum at the start can produce the highest expected return in markets that rise over time (because it buys all the units at the initial price and avoids later purchases at higher prices), the result is highly sensitive to the start date. DCA reduces that start date risk by spreading purchases across many dates and can outperform a lump sum when the initial entry would have been poorly timed.

This approach helps in three ways. It reduces timing risk, because you spread entries across many dates. It turns volatility into an advantage, because you buy more units when the price is lower and fewer when the price is higher. It also builds a "set it and forget it” habit that keeps emotion out of the process.

The power of DCA becomes apparent over a long-time horizon, especially with a traditionally volatile asset such as bitcoin. There have been multiple cycles where BTC has exploded in value and then retraced significantly. Bitcoin has delivered extraordinary long-term returns, over 200 million percent since July 2010, and even in recent years, it posted gains of ~155% in 2023, ~121% in 2024, and a YTD gain near 25% as of mid‑2025. If you took profits at the top of the range, or lost conviction at the bottom, it would be easy to miss out on profits or take them too early.

At its core, the method is about commitment. Choose the amount you can sustain, set a schedule, and allow the plan to run through market cycles without constant tinkering. With that consistency, volatility becomes a source of gradual accumulation rather than a source of stress.

BTC Cycles and DCA vs. Lump-Sum Strategies

2010-2015- Why we omit 2010–2015. 

Early-cycle backtests produce eye-popping returns largely because bitcoin’s market cap and float were tiny and prices were measured in dollars or cents. But those results are hard to generalize. Access and execution in 2010–2015 were materially different from today, with few reliable entry points, limited banking rails, wide spreads, thin venue liquidity, and elevated counterparty and custody risk. Automating a weekly DCA was rarely possible, and purchases were often ad-hoc wires or cash deposits. Slippage, fees, and operational frictions would have dominated outcomes. To keep the analysis practical for modern investors, we begin in 2015 and focus on periods when a systematic DCA was feasible.

2015-2018 — $10/ Week DCA Strategy

Now let’s look at some scenarios for bitcoin investment during the next cycle, from Jan. 2015 through Dec. 2018, as shown in the chart below.

Method and purpose

Once again, we have an investor who practices DCA stoically, investing $10 each week for the entire period. We compare this to investors who make lump-sum purchases of $2,040 each at the low, midpoint and high of the cycle. Finally, we include an investor who follows the $10/week DCA plan from the cycle’s midpoint through its end (who fares about as well as the lump-sum investor who bought at the top, causing the two dashed lines to overlap), and one who also starts at the midpoint and keeps investing to today.

Strategy Performance 

What the path required

Results assume the DCA investors continued buying each week during selloffs and never sold. The period included two very large drawdowns of more than 75%, including the 2018 bear market and the 2022 crypto winter. DCA lowered the average entry price and reduced timing risk, even though year-to-year swings were severe.

2018-2022 — $10/Week DCA vs. Lump-Sum Strategies

Lastly, let’s look at how various DCA and lump-sum strategies would have fared from Dec. 15, 2018, through Nov. 21, 2022. The Bitcoin price movement for this period is shown below.

Method and purpose

A diamond-handed investor puts in $10 each week during the period and holds all purchases to today. Other investors make single purchases of $2,050 at the window’s low, the midpoint, and the local high. 

The goal is to show how steady, small buys during the full upswing from the post-2018 bottom to the 2022 peak compare with timing the market. Held to today, the DCA position’s value sits near $20,000.

Yet another DCA investor begins a $10 per week plan at the cycle’s midpoint through November 2022. One last investor also starts at the midpoint but continues investing $10 per week through today.

Strategy Performance

What the path required

Results assume the DCA investors continued buying each week during selloffs and never sold. The period included a very large drawdown of 75%. DCA reduced timing risk and smoothed entry, even though the swings were severe and discipline was required.

Takeaways

• Trying to time tops and bottoms is a risky strategy. Do not bank on being early; focus on consistent accumulation instead.

• The lump sum placed near the window low delivers the largest dollar profit because all units were acquired at the cheapest price.

• A single lump-sum investment at the top of a cycle range fares the worst and often underperforms a DCA investment for much if not all of an investment timeframe.

• Across all three windows, a $10 per week plan that starts at the midpoint tends to finish near the outcome of a lump sum placed at a local high, while committing far less cash, roughly 1/3, highlighting the capital efficiency and lower timing risk of DCA.

• Across every cycle, the DCA midpoint strategy consistently endured smaller drawdowns and fewer days underwater compared to lump sum at the midpoint. While lump sum entries at midpoints often delivered higher ultimate multiples, they suffered harsher and longer drawdowns. DCA at midpoint, by contrast, reduced both the severity of peak-to-trough losses and the time spent in recovery, demonstrating how steady accumulation helps investors weather volatility.

• DCA lands between the two lump-sum paths. By spreading purchases across many weeks, it reduces dependence on a single start date while still building meaningful exposure.

• Perfect timing wins, bad timing loses, and DCA provides a robust middle path that is less sensitive to entry timing while committing the same total capital.

Dollar-Cost Averaging into Bitcoin Made Easy

GalaxyOne makes it easy to auto-reinvest your earned interest directly into bitcoin (BTC) or other supported crypto assets, turning interest into long-term growth without extra steps. It leverages the benefits of DCA seamlessly allow you to choose your reinvestment strategy. Once the monthly interest is paid to your GalaxyOne high-yield cash account, you can either continue to compound in cash at 4.00% Annual Percentage Yield (APY)*, or you adopt a bitcoin DCA strategy and steadily grow your bitcoin holdings without trying to time the market.

Over its 16-year history, bitcoin has demonstrated that it deserves consideration in an investor’s portfolio. Today, some of the largest asset managers recommend an allocation of 2-5% of your portfolio to bitcoin (in some cases even higher). Whether you are a crypto OG or relatively new to crypto, we believe investing should be seamless and functional. GalaxyOne delivers both.

*  APY is effective as of 9/23/2025 and may change at any time before or after account opening.

Disclosures:

GalaxyOne Cash account deposits held at Cross River Bank, Member FDIC. Insured up to $250,000.

Digital assets are highly volatile, not legal tender, and not backed by any government. Investments in cryptoassets involve significant risk, including the potential loss of all principal. Digital assets available on GalaxyOne are held in custodial wallets with Paxos Trust Company, a New York State-chartered trust company regulated by the New York Department of Financial Services. These assets are not insured by the FDIC or SIPC.

Crypto trading on GalaxyOne may be subject to execution, network, or withdrawal fees, including applicable blockchain transaction ("gas") fees. While GalaxyOne does not charge spread markups, other costs may apply. Crypto transactions may trigger taxable events; please consult your tax advisor to understand your individual tax obligations.

GalaxyOne’s crypto services are offered in partnership with Paxos. By using these services, you agree to the GalaxyOne Digital Asset Customer Agreement and Risk Disclosure, available here.